Thorpe's First Rule of Estimating
IT IS ALWAYS, ALWAYS BIGGER THAN YOU THOUGHT.
Do not be fooled, even if you are a world expert estimator complete with COCOCOBANA and electric fan, even if you have a full set of past metrics and a record which says you are normally within 5% accuracy, deep down you still feel it should not take as long as the figure you have just come up with.
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